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Obama’s Mishandling of Bernanke

Friday, January 22nd, 2010

Jake Tapper reported last night that Ben Bernanke’s re-nomination to be Fed Chairman is suddenly in trouble:

ABC News has learned that the Senate Democratic leadership isn’t sure there are enough votes to re-confirm Ben Bernanke for another term as chairman of the Federal Reserve.

The White House expressed confidence in Bernanke’s nomination today, but if his nomination does falter, they have only themselves to blame.

From the moment the President announced Bernanke’s re-nomination, rather than maximize the chances of a smooth confirmation process with a formal ceremony at the White House, the Administration played politics.

To refresh people’s memories: According to Reuters, Obama first decided to re-nominate Bernanke in July for another term as Fed Chairman. But he did not tell Bernanke until nearly a month later, at an Oval Office meeting in mid-August. Even then, the White House held the news until the following week, so it could make the re-nomination on the same day that OMB was releasing a worsening budget forecast — thereby stepping on one bad economic story with a bigger, better one. Nevermind that the President was on vacation that day.

Their ploy produced a bizarre photo-op, of the President and the Fed Chair making the major announcement sans ties, in a distinctly un-presidential setting. Reported the Associated Press:

Obama made the announcement while on vacation on the island of Martha’s Vineyard off the coast of Massachusetts after aides said initially that the president intended a news-free week there. Both he and Bernanke sported the open-collar look. …

The announcement also came nearly concurrently with a piece of bad economic news. Obama interrupted his vacation to telegraph his decision just ahead of a White House report that gave more bleak assessments of the nation’s deficit picture.

Figures released by the White House budget office on Monday foresee a cumulative $9 trillion deficit from 2010-2019, $2 trillion more than the administration estimated in May.

The White House press shop must have thought they were pretty clever that day. But they look like idiots now, with the nomination suddenly on the ropes.

Is Obama really kissing the dollar goodbye?

Tuesday, October 13th, 2009

Reporters covering the 2008 presidential campaign may remember my early suspicions that Barack Obama was not committed to a strong U.S. dollar policy, based on some of his early observations that a weak dollar would help U.S. manufacturers and exporters.

But those fears were allayed in June 2008, when Reuters’ Caren Bohan asked him what his dollar policy would be if elected President:

Obama, a Democrat, said that if he is elected president his policy on the dollar would focus on fixing woes such as the housing crisis that have had ripple effects on other areas of the economy, rather than on trying to manipulate the currency.

“The dollar is both a problem by itself, but it’s also a symptom of underlying problems,” Obama told reporters on his campaign plane in response to a question.

“I’m not somebody who thinks that we should spend a lot of time manipulating our monetary or fiscal policy simply to strengthen the dollar. What I want to do, though, is strengthen the economic fundamentals in such a way that the dollar, of its own accord, ends up being strong,” he said. “I do think we should have a dollar policy.”

Obama echoed those sentiments two months later in Ohio, drawing rare plaudits from the Wall Street Journal editorial board:

The underreported economic news of the week is that Barack Obama favors a stronger dollar. Even better, he thinks a stronger greenback would help to reduce oil prices.

That at least is what the Democratic Presidential candidate told a town hall forum in Parma, Ohio, on Tuesday. “If we had a strengthening of the dollar, that would help” reduce fuel costs, he said, according to a Reuters dispatch ignored by most of the media.

This is all especially relevant now, as the U.S. dollar sits near a 14-month low, gold prices are at or near record levels, and there is renewed talk of foreigners dumping (or at least diversifying) their U.S. currency reserves. (As Matt Drudge declared yesterday, “Kiss the dollar goodbye”.) Just as Obama noted in Ohio over a year ago, the weak dollar is helping push oil prices up.

So was Obama misleading in his endorsement of a strong dollar policy on the campaign trail?

No doubt he inherited a terrible deficit, but since then it’s only gotten worse. The stimulus and FY10 spending bills signaled a return to reckless non-defense discretionary spending increases (which President Bush actually managed to tackle for the most part). And rather than put the nation on a course towards financial solvency by proposing significant entitlement reforms in his budget proposals, he’s instead proposed creating new ones (like the health care bill being voted on in the Senate Finance Committee today).

Similarly, President Obama and Congressional Democrats have further undermined the U.S. dollar by signaling a return to protectionism. Never mind the Nobel Committee’s praising Obama for his “extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples.” In the arena that matters most – international trade – President Obama is proving to be closer to an old-fashion isolationist, rejecting bilateral trade agreements (like South Korea and Columbia) and siding with domestic unions over international trade partners (the Chinese tire dispute).

Finally, the President has been deafeningly quiet about the dollar’s steady fall. This is notable: Currency markets are one of the few places where government officials’ words matter nearly as much as their actions. Just last Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke sparked a small rally behind the dollar with a few encouraging words. Strong words from the President – in line with what he said on the campaign trail last year – certainly wouldn’t hurt as traders ponder the future of the greenback. Instead – as is quickly becoming a pattern on uncomfortable issues – President Obama’s opted to stay silent, compounding a growing problem.

Obama speaks!

Monday, August 17th, 2009

After avoiding public discussion about the war in Afghanistan since announcing his surge strategy in March, President Obama will finally address the effort today. Reports Reuters:

President Barack Obama will seek to shore up U.S. public support for the war in Afghanistan on Monday just days before an Afghan presidential election widely seen as a major test of his revamped strategy. … Hoping to reassure Americans, Obama is expected to sketch out why he believes the Afghanistan policy he unveiled earlier this year is working and why the United States must remain committed to stabilizing the war-ravaged country.

This is precisely the sort of address that I’ve criticized him for not delivering in recent months. While he’ll no doubt paint the rosiest picture possible, the truth is that the war in Afghanistan is not going well, and there remain monumental challenges ahead.

And, while I don’t want to prejudge his remarks, I’ll be listening closely for four things:

1) How does he define success? In March, he said the goal was to dismantle al Qaeda, but recently his military advisers have seen different goals. Where does he stand?

2) Do we have enough troops in the nation? His military commanders don’t think so and will likely ask for more troops – something his civilian advisers have been slow to embrace. Which way is he leaning?

3) What does he expect in the elections? The Taliban have vowed to disrupt the election, and many candidates are already crying foul against the government. Will the President downplay the importance of the election, or call it a major milestone?

4) How long does the President expect us to be in Afghanistan? Most experts and advisers don’t see an end to fighting anytime soon, yet public and political support is already waning. Will the President start to lay the groundwork for an early withdrawal by lowering expectations and redefining success?

Unfortunately, I’ll be traveling during his speech today, but hope to post some additional analysis later this afternoon.

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