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Posts Tagged ‘economics’

First take on Obama’s Budget

Monday, February 1st, 2010

While available to Hill staff and press in physical form first thing this morning, President Obama’s FY2011 budget was not widely available until a few minutes ago – and even then, only through the Government Printing Office’s website. I’m sure it was unintentional, but it did slow down independent budget geeks (like me) from reviewing his latest proposals while Administration officials touted and shaped the early stories.

Nevertheless, here are some of my initial observations about the President’s budget:

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The actual GDP numbers

Friday, January 29th, 2010

As I wrote in my POLITICO column earlier his week, the Administration originally predicted that the GDP would shrink 1.2% in 2009, a more optimistic number than most economists predicted that made the projected deficit seem better than it really was.

Today, the Commerce Department reports that the GDP actually shrunk 2.4% in 2009 – twice as much as the Administration had predicted, contributing to the bigger than projected deficit.

Obama’s Mishandling of Bernanke

Friday, January 22nd, 2010

Jake Tapper reported last night that Ben Bernanke’s re-nomination to be Fed Chairman is suddenly in trouble:

ABC News has learned that the Senate Democratic leadership isn’t sure there are enough votes to re-confirm Ben Bernanke for another term as chairman of the Federal Reserve.

The White House expressed confidence in Bernanke’s nomination today, but if his nomination does falter, they have only themselves to blame.

From the moment the President announced Bernanke’s re-nomination, rather than maximize the chances of a smooth confirmation process with a formal ceremony at the White House, the Administration played politics.

To refresh people’s memories: According to Reuters, Obama first decided to re-nominate Bernanke in July for another term as Fed Chairman. But he did not tell Bernanke until nearly a month later, at an Oval Office meeting in mid-August. Even then, the White House held the news until the following week, so it could make the re-nomination on the same day that OMB was releasing a worsening budget forecast — thereby stepping on one bad economic story with a bigger, better one. Nevermind that the President was on vacation that day.

Their ploy produced a bizarre photo-op, of the President and the Fed Chair making the major announcement sans ties, in a distinctly un-presidential setting. Reported the Associated Press:

Obama made the announcement while on vacation on the island of Martha’s Vineyard off the coast of Massachusetts after aides said initially that the president intended a news-free week there. Both he and Bernanke sported the open-collar look. …

The announcement also came nearly concurrently with a piece of bad economic news. Obama interrupted his vacation to telegraph his decision just ahead of a White House report that gave more bleak assessments of the nation’s deficit picture.

Figures released by the White House budget office on Monday foresee a cumulative $9 trillion deficit from 2010-2019, $2 trillion more than the administration estimated in May.

The White House press shop must have thought they were pretty clever that day. But they look like idiots now, with the nomination suddenly on the ropes.

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