I often remind people that my first day working at the White House was Monday, August 29, 2005 – the day Hurricane Katrina made landfall in Louisiana. I vividly remember the initial relief that night that the storm apparently was not as bad as initially feared: The eye missed New Orleans, and initial reports made it sound like a disaster had been averted. Politicians were quick to congratulate themselves, and the sense of urgency dissipated.

Of course, in the following days, the levies broke in New Orleans, the government’s response failed on multiple levels, and Hurricane Katrina proved to be the costliest natural disaster in American history.

I recall all this because I wonder if it’s similar to how people will recall this Administration’s handling of the H1N1 flu. Now like then, after the initial panic over the flu’s outbreak this spring, it quickly appeared to not be as a bad as it could have been: It was not as deadly as originally reported and sufficient vaccines would quickly be available before a potentially more lethal second-wave this winter.

But like Hurricane Katrina, the initial relief and self-congratulation is now being replaced by fears and finger-pointing. Reports the Washington Post:

… [T]he administration came under criticism for the slow pace of the vaccine’s availability. Sens. Joseph I. Lieberman (I-Conn.) and Susan Collins (R-Maine) sent a scathing letter to Sebelius demanding details about the lag in production.

Officials had projected that as many as 120 million doses of vaccine would be available by now, but later downgraded that projection to 40 million and then 28 million. So far, 23.3 million doses have become available.

As I wrote over the weekend, the Administration’s early handling of the flu was uncertain and unproductive. If they are at all responsible (or blamed) for the vaccine shortage, that will further compound the early mistakes. So while the situation appeared better than feared over the summer, that optimism could turn out to be deceiving, and the H1N1 flu could still become this Administration’s Katrina.