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Shaping Afghanistan public opinion

Tuesday, October 20th, 2009

There’s been a lot of discussion in the last 24 hours about the slumping support for the war in Afghanistan, based on new poll numbers showing a majority of Americans believe the war there is similar to Vietnam. So far, the analysis has focused on whether those poor numbers should or will impact President Obama’s upcoming decision on troop levels.

With all due respect to the pundits, I think a better question is why the poll numbers are so bad. Public opinion does not exist in a vacuum — it is shaped by messages and experiences. In the case of Afghanistan, the latter has been awful for months now, while the former has been non-existent. In other words, rather than ignoring the war all summer, and publicly vacillating on its direction all fall, wouldn’t the war be more popular now if the President had consistently explained and advocated his strategy?

Looking forward, it’s clear that an aggressive PR campaign will be required to maintain public support if the President decides on any strategy other than withdrawal (which itself will likely be unpopular with much of the country). So far, he’s shown no interest in attempting to rally public support for the war — let alone invest political capital in it. Is it possible that that reticence is now factoring into his decision more than the actual numbers?

Afghan Silence Continued

Monday, August 10th, 2009

President Obama had a prime opportunity to articulate his Afghanistan policy today when he held a press conference with Canadian Prime Minster Stephen Harper, but once again he did not mention the effort.

It’s too bad, because in the last 36 hours, his Administration has been all over the map on what the future holds in Afghanistan. This morning, the Wall Street Journal published an interview with the US commander in Afghanistan, Gen. Stanley McChrystal, reporting that the commander believed “the Taliban have gained the upper hand in Afghanistan” and that US casualties will remain high for months to come (which isn’t really news to anybody following developments there, but nevertheless a sobering assessment considering the source).

This comes after Obama’s national security advisors struggled to explain, defend and predict the future of the war on yesterday’s Sunday Shows. On NBC’s Meet the Press, Obama’s National Security Advisor offered a different “endgame” than Obama’s goal of just defeating al Qaeda:

“The endgame in Afghanistan is obviously to turn the responsibility for their security and economic prosperity and the governance over to Afghans as quickly as possible.”

Jones also said that we would know by the “end of next year” whether or not we would succeed in Afghanistan, which is a more ambitious timeline than military commanders have offered.

(As an aside: Does anybody believe that if the Administration does turn down commanders’ requests for additional troops that Afghanistan will be stabilized by the “end of next year”? And where will that leave Obama, if chaos continues to reign there in 15 months?)

Similarly, Susan Rice’s comments on CNN downplayed the need for more troops and resources in the war, while repeating the President’s goal from March “to defeat al Qaeda in Afghanistan and its extremist allies.”

Considering the confusing and contradictory statements coming from Obama’s military and civilian advisors over the need for more troops, the progress being achieved, and the likelihood of success in the next few years, one might think the Commander in Chief would want to offer some leadership. But instead, he let another opportunity pass.

Obama’s Af-Pak Message

Wednesday, May 6th, 2009

I’ve been critical of Obama’s communications on Afghanistan and Pakistan, mostly because I think he’s trying to avoid taking ownership of a policy that he very much owns, at the risk of undermining much-needed public support for the war.

But there’s no avoiding the issue today, with the leaders of Afghanistan and Pakistan both in Washington. So far, Obama’s laid low, having Hillary Clinton do the heavy lifting with two (!) press briefings on the matter. But that is scheduled to change this afternoon, when Obama delivers remarks at 4:15 pm ET. Considering the importance of the issue and the need for clarity, I would expect Obama to take questions from press on the subject – in fact, it’s pretty inexcusable if he does not.

At issue is how much the Administration will back the two country’s embroiled foreign leaders. The Administration’s message – as carried by Clinton and Robert Gibbs – appears to be a tad more optimistic than I expected, with Gibbs declaring that Obama believes “the Presidents of Afghanistan and Pakistan understand … threats exist.”

This is a bit of a shift since Obama’s statements on the campaign trail, when he was highly critical of the Karzai government. In an interview with CNN in July, he said “the Karzai government has not gotten out of the bunker and helped organize Afghanistan and government, the judiciary, police forces, in ways that would give people confidence” – a rather poor choice of words considering the regular assassination attempts on the Afghan president.

I’m also curious to see if Obama references his own trip to Pakistan in 1981 while he’s standing next to the Pakistani president. Strangely little is known about what would have been an unusual and formative trip for an American to take back then. In fact, we probably wouldn’t even know that the trip occurred if Obama hadn’t slipped mentioned of it during a secretly recorded fundraiser last year (the same fundraiser where he criticized “bitter” gun owners and churchgoers).

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