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Posts Tagged ‘cillizza’

Shaping Afghanistan public opinion

Tuesday, October 20th, 2009

There’s been a lot of discussion in the last 24 hours about the slumping support for the war in Afghanistan, based on new poll numbers showing a majority of Americans believe the war there is similar to Vietnam. So far, the analysis has focused on whether those poor numbers should or will impact President Obama’s upcoming decision on troop levels.

With all due respect to the pundits, I think a better question is why the poll numbers are so bad. Public opinion does not exist in a vacuum — it is shaped by messages and experiences. In the case of Afghanistan, the latter has been awful for months now, while the former has been non-existent. In other words, rather than ignoring the war all summer, and publicly vacillating on its direction all fall, wouldn’t the war be more popular now if the President had consistently explained and advocated his strategy?

Looking forward, it’s clear that an aggressive PR campaign will be required to maintain public support if the President decides on any strategy other than withdrawal (which itself will likely be unpopular with much of the country). So far, he’s shown no interest in attempting to rally public support for the war — let alone invest political capital in it. Is it possible that that reticence is now factoring into his decision more than the actual numbers?

Afghanistan decisions

Monday, October 5th, 2009

Reporting on the tragic deaths of eight American military servicemen on Saturday, Chris Cillizza smartly writes that Afghanistan is a big a problem for Obama:

Afghanistan is rapidly becoming the international counterpart to the domestic debate over health care — an issue in which President Barack Obama has invested much political capital but has yet to find a successful solution. …

The polling data and the divide within Obama’s own Administration in regards Afghanistan reveals the lack of a clear political win as the president decides next steps in the country. And there’s nothing politicians — and their strategists — dislike more than a major political decision for which there is no obvious answer.

Hopefully President Obama is basing his Afghanistan strategy on good policy – rather than good politics. But having said that, I would add that the only thing politically worse than choosing between tough decisions is not making any decision at all – which is the path the President appears set on for now.

After showing decisiveness in Afghanistan on the campaign trail and earlier this year when it was politically easy, Obama is showing indecisiveness in the current, more challenging political climate. As General McChrystal has warned, time is not on our side – and the longer Obama postpones making a decisive decision, the more painful it will be in both real terms and politically.

Team Obama’s Stratcom (or lack thereof)

Wednesday, September 30th, 2009

The New Yorker’s George Packer writes about the trouble he had completing his recent, must-read profile of Richard Holbrooke, coming to the conclusion that the Obama White House is treating press the same way the Obama campaign did:

It all comes down to message discipline, controlling the news cycle, preventing leaks, strategic communications—or “stratcom,” in the Newspeakish term that I first encountered at occupation authority headquarters in Baghdad, back in 2003.

His conclusion is essentially that the Obama team is trying to keep such a tight lid on information that eventually it will choke public understanding (and support):

For policies to work, they have to be explained to the country, not once but again and again, and not just by the President in infrequent speeches but by the senior-level officials who helped establish them and are charged with carrying them out. Otherwise, public confidence can turn to dust in a hurry. Afghanistan is a case in point.

His broader point – that the Obama Administration has failed to elevate officials other than the President – is one that I wholeheartedly agree with (and have raised before).

Packer points to Afghanistan, but the problem there is not the lack of senior officials capable of advocating and explaining the Administration’s policy — it’s the lack of a policy altogether. The better example is the current health care debate, where the Administration is desperately lacking a messenger to support the President’s (over-exposed) efforts (as Cillizza pointed out yesterday).

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