There’s been a lot of discussion in the last 24 hours about the slumping support for the war in Afghanistan, based on new poll numbers showing a majority of Americans believe the war there is similar to Vietnam. So far, the analysis has focused on whether those poor numbers should or will impact President Obama’s upcoming decision on troop levels.
With all due respect to the pundits, I think a better question is why the poll numbers are so bad. Public opinion does not exist in a vacuum — it is shaped by messages and experiences. In the case of Afghanistan, the latter has been awful for months now, while the former has been non-existent. In other words, rather than ignoring the war all summer, and publicly vacillating on its direction all fall, wouldn’t the war be more popular now if the President had consistently explained and advocated his strategy?
Looking forward, it’s clear that an aggressive PR campaign will be required to maintain public support if the President decides on any strategy other than withdrawal (which itself will likely be unpopular with much of the country). So far, he’s shown no interest in attempting to rally public support for the war — let alone invest political capital in it. Is it possible that that reticence is now factoring into his decision more than the actual numbers?


