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First take on Obama’s Budget

Monday, February 1st, 2010

While available to Hill staff and press in physical form first thing this morning, President Obama’s FY2011 budget was not widely available until a few minutes ago – and even then, only through the Government Printing Office’s website. I’m sure it was unintentional, but it did slow down independent budget geeks (like me) from reviewing his latest proposals while Administration officials touted and shaped the early stories.

Nevertheless, here are some of my initial observations about the President’s budget:

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The war budget surge

Wednesday, January 13th, 2010

President Obama’s allies often credit him for counting future war costs in his budget, something President Bush did not do on the grounds that future war costs are impossible to predict and will only invite a more politicized and inaccurate budget process.

President Bush’s policy is now looking a lot better.

As the Associated Press reports today, President Obama will request an additional $33 billion for war funding, mostly to pay for his surge in Afghanistan. What’s more, as the AP reports about the upcoming budget requests:

The 2010 budget contains about $128 billion for military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.

That figure would rise to $159 billion next year under the proposals prepared for Congress.

The Pentagon projects that war funding would drop sharply in 2012, to $50 billion, and remain there through 2015. That is a calculation that the United States will save money from the withdrawal of forces in Iraq, as well as a prediction that the Afghanistan war will begin to wind down in the middle of 2011.

The $159 billion now being requested for 2011 exposes just how foolhardy the White House’s new budget policy really is. Less than a year ago – in May 2009 – the White House said it would only need $50 for 2011, and then had the gall to count that relatively low number as “deficit reduction” (see pages 8 and 32 here).

So when the White House now predicts it will only need $50 billion to fund wars in 2012 and beyond, take that number with a big grain of salt.

Absent more speeches, revisiting Tuesday’s

Friday, December 4th, 2009

Normally when a President takes to the airwaves with a major new policy announcement – especially an unpopular one – he then stays on that message for the next several days with follow-up travel and events. So it’s rather disconcerting that the President has not mentioned his new Afghanistan strategy again since Tuesday night.

So, absent any additional remarks from the President, the nation is left contemplating Tuesday night’s speech. And in their columns today, the Wall Street Journal’s Peggy Noonan and Kim Strassel offer insightful and thoughtful analysis that mirrors much of my own reaction to that speech. Like me, they have very mixed feelings, and worry that the President failed to rally the nation sufficiently (a worry that will grow if the President neglects to sell his plan to the American people in coming weeks).

Writes Kim:

If the president had devoted a fraction of eloquence he has for health care to the cause of Afghanistan this week, he could have rallied a nation that fundamentally wants victory. He’s also in the unique position to challenge the left. He might have reminded them that well before 9/11, Afghanistan was their cause, as they decried the Taliban’s ruthless repression of women’s rights in the late 1990s, and the destruction of the country’s cultural heritage. This would have at least put the president on offense.
The “bipartisan” Mr. Obama also missed a golden opportunity with Republicans. … Instead, Republicans sat through a speech full of gratuitous shots at the prior administration and at national-security tools the GOP also supports—such as Guantanamo Bay.

Similarly, Peggy writes that the President’s withdrawal announcement undermined much of the speech’s rallying message:

After the president announced his plan he seemed to slip in, “After 18 months, our troops will begin to come home.” Then came the reference to July 2011 as the date departure begins. It was startling to hear a compelling case for our presence followed so quickly by an abrupt announcement of our leaving. It sounded like a strategy based on the song Groucho Marx used to sing, “Hello, I must be going.”

So good – and true.

And, offering some very good advice to the White House speechwriters, Peggy suggests the President limit his first-person references:

But there was too much “I” in the speech. George H.W. Bush famously took the word “I” out of his speeches—we called them “I-ectomies”—because of a horror of appearing to be calling attention to himself. Mr. Obama is plagued with no such fears. “When I took office . . . I approved a long-standing request . . . After consultations with our allies I then . . . I set a goal.” That’s all from one paragraph. Further down he used the word “I” in three paragraphs an impressive 15 times. “I believe I know” “I have signed” “I have read” “I have visited.”

I, I—ay yi yi. This is a man badly in need of an I-ectomy.

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