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Archive for January, 2010

The truth about Obama’s budget cuts

Sunday, January 31st, 2010

The White House today says tomorrow’s FY2011 budget is “proposing more than 120 terminations, reductions, and savings for approximately $20 billion in savings this year.” (I assume they mean next year, since this year’s budget is already enacted.)

To put that in perspective, that’s about the same number of programs the White House proposed cutting last year, and, as I wrote after they released last year’s budget, a significantly lower number than what President Bush proposed cutting every year of his second term.

Granted, the proposed savings — $20 billion — is a bit higher than what Bush ever proposed saving (and what Obama proposed last year), but since the White House has not yet broken out how much of that is mandatory (and almost impossible to cut) and how much is discretionary, it’s hard to put much weight in that number now.

The Obama White House is also touting the relative success they had achieving their proposed cuts last year compared to President Bush. But two observations are in order: First, President Bush proposed cutting significantly more programs (about 150 most years) than Obama, which skews the relative success rates. Second, in the early years of Bush’s administration, the deficit was small, so their was little pressure on Congress to deliver cuts. And, when the deficit started to grow in the later years, the Democrats took charge of Congress, and had little appetite for accepting Bush’s budget. Now, Obama’s party controls Congress and deficits are a pressing issue, so cuts should be easier.

The bottom line is that President Obama deserves credit for proposing some cuts, but some perspective is in order.

Truth in budgeting

Saturday, January 30th, 2010

In my POLITICO column last week, I wrote that the Administration used a lot of smoke and mirrors to hide the true costs of government. Here’s another example, as reported in the Washington Examiner:

A trade publication is reporting this afternoon that President Obama’s 2011 federal budget proposal will assume receipt of billions of dollars in revenue generated from the cap-and-trade program even though that proposal appears now to be all but dead in Congress.

“The White House told Sen. John Kerry’s office that the president plans to assume revenue from the controversial climate policy approach. Kerry aides said they had assurances the revenue won’t be designated for issues unrelated to energy policy and combating climate change.

“Obama last year proposed in his fiscal 2010 budget that a cap-and-trade program would raise some $650 billion over 10 years via a full auction of emission credits, with the money primarily going to pay for middle-class tax cuts and development and deployment of clean energy technologies,” Energy and Environment News senior reporter Darren Samuelson wrote in the publication that is subscription-only.

The actual GDP numbers

Friday, January 29th, 2010

As I wrote in my POLITICO column earlier his week, the Administration originally predicted that the GDP would shrink 1.2% in 2009, a more optimistic number than most economists predicted that made the projected deficit seem better than it really was.

Today, the Commerce Department reports that the GDP actually shrunk 2.4% in 2009 – twice as much as the Administration had predicted, contributing to the bigger than projected deficit.

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