Last week, I predicted that President Obama would wait until the health care debate was over before proposing his Afghanistan decision, even though it was clear he was almost certain to send about 35,000 additional troops. At the time, I argued that there was not enough bandwidth in Congress or political capital in the Democratic establishment to support both a push for health care reform at home and a troop surge overseas, and Obama would do everything he could do delay the Afghan announcement until after health care.
But today, I was happily proved wrong: With final health care votes still many weeks (months?) away, the White House is reportedly moving forward with its Afghanistan announcement, preparing to announce a surge of 34,000 troops next week (just shy of the 35,000 that I predicted).
Given my interest in the White House’s communications strategy surrounding Afghanistan (or rather, the lack thereof), I’m sure I’ll have plenty more to say about this in the lead up to his prime time announcement. But for now, be sure to read ABC News’ Rick Klein smart summation of where the White House finds itself:
An off-ramp, finally, for the decision-making process on Afghanistan: Monday night’s two-hour minute meeting of President Obama’s war council (meeting No. 9 — and this one, tellingly, with Office of Management and Budget Director Peter Orszag present) will be the last such gathering.
“President Obama is expected to address the nation in prime time a week from today, Tuesday, December 1, to announce his new strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan,” ABC’s Jake Tapper reports. “Though the president has yet to pull the final trigger, officials expect him to select a strategy of sending approximately 34,000 additional U.S. troops to Afghanistan, officials said. Troops would begin deploying early next year.”
This whole process has been problematic for the White House — with the leaks (both directed and not so much), the rolling meetings, the public speeches and private hints, and the many distractions feeding storylines the president could do without.
And while the decision was not to decide, opposition has grown and cemented on both sides. The Dick Cheney “dithering” critique got stronger with age; throw in the skepticism of David Obey, Carl Levin, and Nancy Pelosi, and things get interesting on his left.
At this point — who on the Hill is going to want to stand beside the president when he announces his new strategy? (Is there a worse political case to make than giving Gen. Stanley McChrystal his numbers, but not an unqualified endorsement?)
The political storyline has beaten the president to the finish line. As if the war in Afghanistan isn’t enough, he’s got a quagmire at home to contend with — tied up with the other big forces pressing on his presidency.
