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Archive for September, 2009

Team Obama’s Stratcom (or lack thereof)

Wednesday, September 30th, 2009

The New Yorker’s George Packer writes about the trouble he had completing his recent, must-read profile of Richard Holbrooke, coming to the conclusion that the Obama White House is treating press the same way the Obama campaign did:

It all comes down to message discipline, controlling the news cycle, preventing leaks, strategic communications—or “stratcom,” in the Newspeakish term that I first encountered at occupation authority headquarters in Baghdad, back in 2003.

His conclusion is essentially that the Obama team is trying to keep such a tight lid on information that eventually it will choke public understanding (and support):

For policies to work, they have to be explained to the country, not once but again and again, and not just by the President in infrequent speeches but by the senior-level officials who helped establish them and are charged with carrying them out. Otherwise, public confidence can turn to dust in a hurry. Afghanistan is a case in point.

His broader point – that the Obama Administration has failed to elevate officials other than the President – is one that I wholeheartedly agree with (and have raised before).

Packer points to Afghanistan, but the problem there is not the lack of senior officials capable of advocating and explaining the Administration’s policy — it’s the lack of a policy altogether. The better example is the current health care debate, where the Administration is desperately lacking a messenger to support the President’s (over-exposed) efforts (as Cillizza pointed out yesterday).

Broken promises & Afghanistan surges

Friday, September 25th, 2009

In a must-read column in today’s Wall Street Journal, Kori Schake argues that President Obama failed to deliver on his promise for a diplomatic surge in Afghanistan:

When Mr. Obama announced his current Afghanistan policy in March, he said it was “a stronger, smarter, more comprehensive strategy” that would build schools, hospitals, roads, and enterprise zones, addressing issues like energy and trade. Where are those efforts?

He said “to advance security, opportunity and justice—not just in Kabul, but from the bottom up in the provinces—we need agricultural specialists and educators; engineers and lawyers.” Where are those specialists?

The president said “I am ordering a substantial increase in our civilians on the ground.” He directed Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to develop a diplomatic plan to parallel Gen. McChrystal’s military plan. Where is that plan?

The administration has done virtually nothing in these areas. Karl Eikenberry, the U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan, sent in a plea for funding for some of these civilian projects last month. It was dismissed as premature. The administration has not named a director for the Agency for International Development. And only 56 additional civilians as part of the “civilian surge” were in place before Afghanistan’s August elections.

These are fair points, although I suspect the Administration would argue that security concerns did not allow for more non-military resources being sent to Afghanistan.

Nevertheless, if Obama does announce a shift in strategy that requires fewer troops as he’s hinted he might, he would almost surely try to compensate by promising a renewed diplomatic surge.

But as today’s column points out, we’ve heard these empty promises from Obama before.

What’s changed

Tuesday, September 22nd, 2009

Last week I noticed a subtle shift in President Obama’s language on Afghanistan and suggested he may be laying the ground work for a major strategy shift. After this weekend’s media blitz, the Washington Post editorial board noticed the same shift:

It was only last March 27 that President Obama outlined in a major speech what he called “a comprehensive new strategy for Afghanistan” that, he added, “marks the conclusion of a careful policy review.” … So it was a little startling to hear Mr. Obama suggest in several televised interviews on Sunday that he had second thoughts. “We are in the process of working through that strategy,” said on CNN.” The first question is . . . are we pursuing the right strategy?” On NBC he said, “if supporting the Afghan national government and building capacity for their army and securing certain provinces advances that strategy” of defeating al-Qaeda, “then we’ll move forward. But if it doesn’t, then I’m not interested in just being in Afghanistan for the sake of being in Afghanistan.”

The Post editorial board goes on to ask why President Obama is second-guessing a strategy that he proudly announced barely six months ago:

What has changed since March? … It’s hard to see, however, how Mr. Obama can refute the analysis he offered last March.

To answer their question, only one thing has changed since March: Domestic and international support for the war has started to collapse. Abroad, our international allies are in a hurry to shift from combat to humanitarian roles, or leave Afghanistan altogether. At home, key congressmen, senators and opinion leaders have all voiced deep skepticism about the war, and stated opposition to additional troop surges. Public support for the war is quickly falling.

How did the situation change so quickly? Well, for starters, after announcing his surge strategy in March, the President said nary a word about the war for the following four months. That, coupled with heavy casualties and limited progress, and it’s no wonder everyone from Congress leaders to average voters are questioning the wisdom of the effort.

The unfortunate truth is that President Obama has allowed public support for the war in Afghanistan to slip to a point where the long-term, high-cost effort being proposed by his commanders may not be possible politically. But one thing is clear: If the President does want any chance of winning in Afghanistan, he needs to stop the public vacillating that the Post noticed this weekend, and instead rally the Congress and nation to double-down on the war.

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